Schrier, van der, G., Osborn, T., Briffa, K. and Cook, E. R. (2007). Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions. Holocene 17 (1). Vol 17(1), pp. 119-129.

Title
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Title:
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions
Issue
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Issue:
Holocene 17 (1)
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Series:
The Holocene
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Volume:
17 (1)
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Page Start/End:
119 - 129
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Journal
Abstract
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The paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting.
Author
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Author:
G Schrier, van der
T J Osborn
Keith R Briffa
Edward R Cook
Year of Publication
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Year of Publication:
2007
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BIAB (The British & Irish Archaeological Bibliography (BIAB))
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URI: http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/17/1/119
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Created Date:
03 May 2007